Posted on: February 6, 2023, 11:01h.
Last updated on: February 6, 2023, 02:02h.
With Super Bowl LVII less than a week away, it’s time to pinpoint individual player prop bets. Running back Miles Sanders and quarterback Jalen Hurts from the Philadelphia Eagles have the highest rushing yards totals (over/under) on the Super Bowl prop bets board. That’s even though backup running back Kenneth Gainwell leads the team in rushing yards in the postseason.
This year’s Super Bowl matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles features two teams with contrasting offensive philosophies. You’ll find that players on the Eagles, a team that likes to run the ball, have a much higher potential rushing total than do players on the pass-heavy Chiefs.
Super Bowl LVII Player Rushing Prop Bets
- Miles Sanders (RB, Eagles): 60.5 yards o/u
- Jalen Hurts (QB, Eagles): 49.5 yards o/u
- Isiah Pacheco (RB, Chiefs): 49.5 yards o/u
- Jerick McKinnon (RB, Chiefs): 22.5 yards o/u
- Kenneth Gainwell (RB, Eagles): 19.5 yards o/u
- Patrick Mahomes (QB, Chiefs): 19.5 yards o/u
As of Monday morning, or six days before Super Bowl LVII on February 12, the Eagles are a consensus -1.5 favorite over the Chiefs. The points total is 50.5 o/u. The Super Bowl opened as a pick’em, but betting lines settled in late last week, with early money on the Eagles. Expect the point spread and prop betting numbers to move later in the week when more bettors place their Super Bowl wagers.
Eagles Better Rushing Team, Chiefs Better Run D
In the postseason, the Eagles led every team with 208 rushing yards per game. The Eagles ran the ball more effectively and racked up twice as many yards as the Chiefs, who averaged 98 rushing yards per game.
During the regular season, the Eagles were ranked #5 in rushing, averaging 147.6 yards per game. The Chiefs were ranked #20 in rushing, averaging 115.9 yards per game.
The Chiefs boasted the eighth-best run defense in the league during the regular season. They only allowed 107.2 rushing yards per game.
The Eagles’ run defense was ranked #17 overall in the regular season, allowing opponents to average 121.6 rushing yards.
In two postseason victories, the Eagles allowed only 99.5 rushing yards per game. Then again, they jumped out to big leads in both games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs allowed 107.5 rushing yards per game in their two close playoff wins.
Miles Sanders (60.5 O/U)
During 17 regular-season games with the Eagles, Sanders was ranked #5 in the NFL in rushing yards (1,269) and #8 in attempts (259). He also scored 11 rushing touchdowns, which was ranked #8 in the league.
In the regular season, Sanders averaged 74.6 yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry. He was a non-factor in the passing game this season, with just 20 receptions and zero receiving touchdowns.
Sanders didn’t have a huge impact in the postseason this year, because the Eagles really didn’t need him. His usage rate dropped to just 58% in the playoffs because of the rise of backup running back Kenneth Gainwell.
In two postseason victories, Sanders rushed 28 times for 132 yards and two touchdowns. He averaged 66 rushing yards per playoff game and 4.7 yards per carry. In a blowout against the New York Giants in the NFC divisional round, Sanders rushed 17 times for 90 yards. In another big win against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC championship, Sanders carried the ball only 11 times for 42 yards, but added two rushing touchdowns.
Jalen Hurts (49.5 O/U)
In 15 games this season, Hurts generated 760 rushing yards as the fourth-highest-rated quarterback in the NFL. He rushed 165 times and averaged 4.6 yards per carry. He led all quarterbacks with 13 rushing touchdowns per game and ranked third overall out of all quarterbacks, averaging 50.7 rushing yards per game.
In two playoff victories, Hurts rushed 20 times for 73 yards and two rushing touchdowns. He averaged only 36.5 yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry because opposing defenses tried to keep him in check.
The Chiefs boasted a top-eight run defense in the regular season, so it will be a fun matchup to see if they can slow down Hurts. With 49.5 rushing yards o/u, the public thinks Hurts can gash the Chiefs on the ground in the Super Bowl.
Hurts emerged as the early betting favorite to win the MVP of Super Bowl LVII. He’s also one of the betting favorites to score multiple touchdowns in the Super Bowl at +600 odds.
Isiah Pacheco (49.5 O/U)
Unlike the Eagles, the Chiefs rely on their running backs as additional blockers to pick up blitzes. They’re utilized in the passing game as a safety valve for Mahomes. Isiah Pacheco gets more running action than Jerick McKinnon, but McKinnon has a bigger impact in the passing game.
Pacheco is the highest-rated member of the Chiefs with a rushing prop bet of 49.5 yards o/u. The rookie from Rutgers emerged as the Chiefs’ primary running back in the second half of the season. He rushed 170 times for 830 yards for 4.9 yards per carry. He also added five rushing touchdowns.
In two postseason games, Pacheco rushed 22 times for 121 yards, or 5.5 yards per carry. He scored only one touchdown. Pacheco is tied for the third-most receptions on the Chiefs with six catches in two playoff games. He racked up 65 receiving yards, but zero touchdowns.
Pacheco averages 93 yards from scrimmage, or combined yardage, in the playoffs. DraftKings posted a rushing plus receiving (RUSH+REC) yards prop bet, and Pacheco is only 69.5 yards o/u.
Jerick McKinnon (22.5 O/U)
McKinnon rushed for only 26 yards in the postseason, so his Super Bowl rushing total leans on the high side at 22.5 yards o/u.
During the regular season, McKinnon carried the ball more than eight times in two different games. He never had more than 10 rushes in a game, and only went north of 25 yards in just three games. In 17 regular-season games, McKinnon rushed 72 times for 291 yards, or 4.0 yards per carry. He scored just one rushing touchdown.
McKinnon was dangerous in the red zone during the regular season, with nine touchdown receptions. Overall, he tallied 56 catches for 512 receiving yards.
Kenneth Gainwell (19.5 O/U)
During every deep playoff run, there’s a bench player who seems to come out of nowhere with big-time performances. Second-year running back. Kenneth Gainwell is playing that role in this year’s postseason.
The Eagles selected Gainwell from Memphis in the fifth round of the 2021 NFL Draft. During the regular season, the Eagles relied on Gainwell as a third-down running back because of his blocking abilities.
Gainwell leads the Eagles in rushing yards in the postseason. He rushed 26 times for 160 yards for an impressive 6.2 yards per carry. He destroyed the Giants in the NFC divisional round with 112 rushing yards and a touchdown on just 12 carries.
During the regular season, Gainwell rushed 53 times for 240 yards. He averaged 4.5 yards per carry and 14.1 yards per game. That’s quite the contrast to averaging 80 yards per game in the postseason, so his numbers seemed skewed. Then again, the Eagles had two easy wins and they wanted to preserve the health of Sanders and Hurts heading into the Super Bowl.
Gainwell surpassed 20 rushing yards in a game only once during the regular season. But he soared over that number twice in both playoff games. His rushing prop bet was initially 18.5 yards o/u in the Super Bowl, but oddsmakers moved it to 19.5 yards after early money backed Gainwell and the over.
Patrick Mahomes (19.5 O/U)
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is nursing a high ankle sprain. He suffered the injury in the AFC divisional round in mid-January, so he’s had multiple weeks to recover. Mahomes is known for his cannon of an arm, but he has an uncanny ability for evading rushers in the pocket and a knack for extending plays. He’s not considered a “rushing quarterback” like Hurts, but he’s a savvy runner. If you give Mahomes any wiggle room, he’ll take advantage of open gaps and scamper for a few yards.
Even though Mahomes is banged up heading into the Super Bowl, his rushing prop bet seems high at 19.5 yards o/u. He rushed for only 16 yards in two victories this postseason, for just 8.0 yards per game.
In the regular season, Mahomes averaged 22.6 rushing yards per game. He tallied 358 rushing yards with a 5.9-yard per-game average. In 80 regular season games over his career, he averaged 5.2 yards per carry. Mahomes posted 10 games this season in which he rushed for 21 or more yards.