Premade SGPs Are Sucker Bets

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For those interested in sports betting who need a quick refresher on why house-made same-game parlays are sucker bets, allow me to direct your attention to the NCAA men’s basketball finale, to be played Monday night between the University of Connecticut Huskies and the Cinderella-y San Diego State Aztecs.

Over at DraftKings, the Aztecs were +320 moneyline dogs in the morning hours (the odds have since fallen to +300 as of this writing). But while the +320 was posted, DraftKings was also offering a sweetheart of a “quick SGP,” the sportsbook’s language for a premade same-game parlay.

They titled it “Aztec Lockdown” and it consisted of three legs: San Diego State to win, San Diego State +3.5 points in the first half, and UConn under 74.5 total points.

The odds on that bet? Well, it doesn’t take a mathematician to realize they should be higher than +320, right? After all, those are the moneyline odds straight up, so if that leg was included in the SGP, that’s where it would start, and figure the next two are coin flips, at worst, the odds should be …

They were worse

They were +310.

To be clear: Aztecs moneyline = +320, Aztecs moneyline + first half spread + UConn total points = +310. Justin Perri, who works for Shot Quality, spotted this horror and posted it to Twitter.

Many commenters — and there were many commenters — were quick to take DraftKings to the cleaners for these shenanigans, but to be perfectly fair, DraftKings isn’t alone. Caesars has added legs to SGPs that add literally zero value, and Illinois sportsbook watcher Steve Brubaker recently went 1-for-50 playing FanDuel’s premade SGPs.

Meanwhile, as evidenced in the Perri tweet, 584 unsuspecting bettors put their money down on this objectively terrible wager. At some point after Perri’s post, the bet was removed.

It’s worth wondering just what, exactly, is going on here. DraftKings hasn’t yet responded to Sports Handle’s inquiries, but one of two things happened: Either DraftKings is evil and is trying to purposefully dupe their customers, or the DraftKings SGP algorithm is slightly askew.

Or it might be some combination of the two, whereby odds that are put into the SGP soup automatically get futzed with. Alas, we’ll probably never know for sure.

Thank you for joining us for another thrilling episode of Premade SGPs Suck. See you again next week, probably.


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