NCAA Tournament Hold Skewed Lower By Early Upsets

Must read

[ad_1]

Posted on: March 22, 2023, 03:59h. 

Last updated on: March 22, 2023, 04:10h.

The NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, also known as March Madness, resumes Thursday with half of the Sweet 16 games. Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon estimates the event will generate $4.5 billion in legal handle for North American sportsbook operators.

NCAA Tournament hold
Texas players celebrate a made shot in a recent NCAA tournament game. An analyst says the event should generate $4.5 billion in handle for sportsbooks. (Image: SBNation)

In a note to clients on Wednesday, Beynon said the first two rounds of the tournament likely drove 70% of overall sports wagering handle last week, and those legs of March Madness are usually the biggest handle contributors during the event owing to the massive amount of games available to bettors.

We estimate the Sweet 16 (8 games) and Elite 8 (4 games) rounds combined represent ~55% of weekly sports betting handle (Mar 23-25) while the Final Four (2 games; April 1) and Championship (1 game; April 3) represent 40-50% of handle,” wrote the analyst.

With those statistics in mind, it’s likely that the tournament drives 30% of North American sports betting handle in March and 10% of next month’s total.

Upsets Alter Hold Outlook

Large handles are one thing, but analysts typically focus on sportsbook operators’ hold data — the percentage of cash retained for each dollar bet.

Macquarie estimates operators’ hold through the first two rounds of the tournament was approximately 7%, but that figure could have been significantly larger if not for Fairleigh Dickinson University vanquishing Purdue last Friday, marking just the second time a 16-seed beat a 1-seed. Princeton beating the University of Arizona in a 15/2 matchup and then topping the Missouri Tigers in the second round may have also adversely affected sportsbooks’ hold percentage.

Beynon notes the average hold on Friday, March 17 was 8%, but should have been closer to 4% if not for the Purdue loss. However, bettors’ proclivity for betting overs was a boon to operators over the first two rounds of the tournament.

“Of note, Over/Under bets were a big positive for sportsbooks with 67% of the games going under,” observed Beynon. “Assuming average hold for the remainder of the month, we estimate 1Q23 market hold is trending close to 8%, but we expect most operators to achieve hold 100-200bps below the market hold.”

Macquarie Stock Idea, New York Hold Analysis

Looking at February hold data from New York, Beynon noted that FanDuel and Resorts World led the way at 9.1% and 9%, respectively. DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) and BetMGM, which are the second and third-largest domestic online sportsbook operators behind FanDuel, checked in at 6.8% and 7%, respectively.

Bally’s (NYSE: BALY) BallyBet posted a February hold in New York of just 1.5%. By that metric, the next worst operator was Caesars Sportsbook, but that company notched nearly triple the February hold in that state as Bally’s did.

Beynon has outperform ratings on six gaming stocks with sports wagering exposure, including DraftKings and Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR). Based on most potential upside relative to his price target, Beynon’s top pick is Rush Street Interactive (NYSE: RSI), which needs to more than double to reach the analyst’s price objective of $7.

[ad_2]

Source link

More articles

- Advertisement -spot_img

Latest article

rtp slot pragmatic gampang jackpot sensasionalslot megawin starlight princess 1000 penuh berkahcara jitu main slot win streakslot gacor terpercaya di indonesiapola gacor free scatter slot mahjongteknik terbaru slot olympuspola gacor 20 20 70 auto cetar mahjong waysslot gacor anti rungkad slot deposit dana otomatisslot mania olympus janji gacor langsung cair hadiah maksimaltutorial bermain slot mahjong ways 2 auto kemenangan besar hari inirekomendasi slot olympus 1000 jaminan maxwin terbesarsitus slot gacor gama69slot wild west gold telah kembali gacor dengan menang 50 jutaslot hoki lucky neko buatan provider pg soft sangat cocok untuk member baruslot ampuh gampang cuan besarcara jackpot besar main slot onlinebocoran permain mudah jp pragmaticperkalian beruntun terbaik wild banditoakun pro jepang untuk permainan slot yang lebih gacortips pendapatan lebih dengan cara all in untuk semesta pada slot mahjong waysslot maxwin paling di cari banyak memberslot terpercaya deposit dana terbarurekomendasi racikan pola terbaru gatotkacacara ampuh menang bermain di slot gacorcara cepat cuan besar main slot onlineteknik jitu scatter hitam mahjong ways 2 auto jackpot 200 jutateknik pola starlight princess banyak cuanscatter hitam dengan perkalian x1000 dijamin gampang menangpola jitu main slot online terbarupola ajaib naga hitam mahjong ways hasilkan slot scatter hitam viraltrik slot mahjong wins dengan pola terbarumenang lagi slot starlight princess x1000 jam 3 pagislot hacksaw paling dicari member karena mudah jackpotevent scatter hitam mahjong ways dapatkab hadiah jackpot ratusan jutabocoran scatter hitam mahjong ways2momen turunnya scatter hitam x1000 pada slot super mahjong ways 2slot pragmatic play paling gacorsistem jitu slot mahjong ways berhasil berikan kemudahan banjir scatter hitam populertips admin jarwo menang besar slot mahjong ways2tips cara paling wajar untuk menang slot gates of olympuscara slot pg soft banjir wild lebih mudah jackpot maxwin lancar tiap haripola gacor mahjong ways auto cuan besar tanpa ribetrekomendasi slot gacor terbaik mahjong ways langsung daftar sekarang pasti menang besarcara bermain slot mahjong ways 2 jurus ampuh maxwin anti rungkat khusus pemulamemang situs slot mahjong gampang jackpot nomer 1 indonesiaslot online mahjong ways gacor tiada henti gampang menang jp maxwinteknik keramat scatter hitam datangkan jackpot besar dengan cepathanya perlu 2 slot scatter hitam akan merubah nasib jadi sultan kaya barusistem curang bermain slot online olympus jackpot besarteknik jitu slot starlight princess bigwin terbesar sepanjang sejarahslot gacor terbaik dari pg softmudah jackpot dengan trik terbaru dalam bermain slot onlinepola terbaru olympus x1000strategi panas paling jitu 5 lions megawaysslot pragmatic terpanas gampang menang anti kekalahan mei 2024rahasia adik wahyu menang besar di slot dewa mahjong waysslot server kamboja tempat main slot online mahjong wayscara terbaik menang 100juta bermain dislot mahjong ways2slot mochimon menang sensasionalslot sweet bonanza memberikan ledakan maxwin tanpa ampuncara jitu mengandakan kemenangan dalam bermain slot onlinegokil main slot online dapet mobil lexusslot maxwin akun pro sweet bonanzascatter hitam populer mahjong ways2slot mahjong ways scatter hitam rekomendasi coach yebjudi slot gacor mahjong ways dari pgsoftbet receh menang secukupnya pada permainan slot pragmatic gates of olympuspanduan lengkap untuk pencinta slot super mahjong waysmesin slot hoki kakek zeus x500slot mania cuan maksimal dengan teknik kuno terbarucara jackpot slot online pragmatic playcara main slot raih untung kemenangan 100 juta per hari dengan trik iniperkalian unlimited slot starlight princesfenomena maxwin penuh perkalian pragmatic playsuper gacor hanya di permainan slot super mahjong ways 2jarang rungkad permainan slot starlight princess x1000 tergacor inislot terbaru olympus vip kemenangan terbesarsitus gacor anti rungkad cocok untuk permainan slot olympus terbaru