Posted on: February 12, 2023, 11:07h.
Last updated on: February 12, 2023, 11:07h.
Whether you live in Philadelphia and are getting ready to burn cars and riot in the streets, or whether you live in Kansas City and plan to gather with friends for 29 variations of barbecue, there are Super Bowl bets that will make sense to each of you. The thinking here is that Philadelphia’s offensive and defensive lines are going to be too much for Patrick Mahomes, but if the kid’s ankle is OK, then you never know.
This much we know: When the Eagles ran the ball two weeks ago against the 49ers, they had a lot of success. So why change something that is not broken?
With than in mind, we are keeping a particularly close eye on one guy to be the Super Bowl MVP: Miles Sanders. He had 42 of the Eagles 148 rushing yards along with two TDs against the 49ers, and he will be facing a Chiefs defense that ranked 11th defensively and surrendered 328.2 yards per game.
Philly had 44 rushing plays and just 25 passing plays two weeks ago against San Francisco, and Sanders scored twice. If he does that again, he is going to be in the MVP conversation despite the star power of Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. Sanders had 1,269 rushing yards in the regular season, 5th in the NFL, and averaged 4.9 yards per carry.
“I think Miles Sanders needs 20 touches. The dude is as explosive a player in the NFL as anyone else. If they are able to ride Miles and don’t take him off the field, the Eagles have a chance”
— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) February 11, 2023
Here are the Sanders MVP odds at New York’s nine licensed sportsbooks (you must cross state lines to wager):
- DraftKings: +2200
- FanDuel: +2500.
- BetMGM: +2500.
- Pointsbook: +2500.
- Caesars: +3500.
- Resorts World: Unavailable
- BetRivers: +2000.
- WynnBet: Unavailable.
- BallyBet: Unavailable.
Why Sanders When Hurts and Mahomes are the Superstars?
Mahomes is on a gimpy ankle, and Hurts has the best offensive line in the NFL and will have more than enough time to throw. Sanders not only runs the ball well, averaging 4.9 yards per carry, but he is going to be a receiving option when Mahomes is scrambling, which he is prone to do. Yes, Sanders does not catch the ball as much as he did in his first three years, but you have got to expect the unexpected in a game of this magnitude.
Not since 1998 when Terrell Davis won Super Bowl MVP for the Denver Broncos has a running back won this award, and the Eagles surprised the Niners when they went to him early and often. On this TD, nobody even touched him:
😂 Check out Jason Kelce dance after Miles Sanders TDpic.twitter.com/6xCOIVzuMY
— Jeff Skversky (@JeffSkversky) January 29, 2023
Nor on this one:
Sanders racked up 1,269 rush yards in the 2022 regular season, while Gainwell provided 160 rushing yards & a rushing TD in the postseason. pic.twitter.com/35ViXAx7G4
— NFL Football Operations (@NFLFootballOps) February 10, 2023
And with the odds being what they are, there is a value proposition here that does not exist with either the quarterbacks or the Kelce brothers.
Where is the Action Going?
Different books at seeing different things, but check out some of these wagers courtesy of John Ewing of BetMGM:.
- Money Line
- $1,000,000 to win $800,000 on Philadelphia Eagles money line (-125)
- $80,000 to win $84,000 on Kansas City Chiefs 1st half money line (+105)
- $100,000 on to win $90,909 on Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 (-110)
- $50,000 to win $45,454 on Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 (-110)
- Super Bowl MVP
- $2,500 to win $312.500 on Kenneth Gainwell to win Super Bowl MVP (+12500)
- $35,000 to win $96,250 on the Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl (+275)
- Correct Score
- $5,000 to win $1,000,000 on Correct Score Chiefs 33 – Eagles 30 (+20000)
- $1,600 to win $400,000 on Correct Score: Chiefs 31 – Eagles 26 (+25000)
- $2,500 to win $625,000 on First Half Correct Score: Chiefs 0 – Eagles 0 (+25000)
And here is what Caesars is seeing, courtesy of spokesman Dominic Holden: “Of the 19 jurisdictions where Caesars Sportsbook offers mobile betting, all but two are favoring Philadelphia (-1.5) to cover the spread, including Wyoming, where 99% of the handle has landed on the Eagles. The two states that have seen more spread money bet on the Chiefs and Kansas, which is located less than 10 miles from Arrowhead Stadium, and Arizona, the site of Super Bowl LVII.
“When it comes to the moneyline, bettors are more divided. The Eagles have received the majority of the money in 12 jurisdictions (Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Louisiana, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia) and the Chiefs have the edge in seven (Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, New York, Ontario, Washington D.C., and Wyoming). The highest percentages of money bet on each team’s moneyline are 96% for the Chiefs in Wyoming and 91% for the Eagles in Michigan,” Holden said.
What Does Recent History Tell Us?
The Eagles have won their two playoff games by 31 and 24. The Chiefs have won by 7 and 3. Both teams have terrific defenses, but the Eagles held their opponents to 344 yards per game; the Chiefs to 369. Only the Niners and Bills had better point differentials.
This is going to be a momentum game, and controlling the clock will be paramount. The Eagles can do that with their running game. They averaged 147.6 rushing yards per game during the regular season, a number that has ballooned to 208 in the postseason. The Chiefs are averaging 93 rushing yards in the postseason and have zero rushing TDs. The Eagles have 7.
Them’s the facts, folks, and the Eagles leading rusher will likely be Sanders or Hurts. But for Sanders, rushing is his specialty. If you are buying the idea we are selling, you may want to hedge Sanders with fellow running back Kenneth Gainwell, who has 160 ground yards and a TD in the postseason. He is on the board at +13000 at FanDuel, +12500 at +5000 elsewhere.
If the Eagles lose, or if Halen gets the MVP in a win, so be it. At least you put yourself in play for a massive payoff position based upon a solid statistical foundation. Also you will not have been alone:
A bettor @BetMGM placed $2,500 on Kenneth Gainwell to win Super Bowl MVP (+12500) 🏆
The bet would win $312,500 😱pic.twitter.com/6WwPbsomQq
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) February 8, 2023