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The PGA Championship begins Thursday, and while the event will be held without an injured Tiger Woods, the year’s second major includes plenty of intrigue for casual and die-hard fans alike.
Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler, the world’s top two players, headline the list of contenders, according to sports betting odds. Rahm and Scheffler are both +750 to win the event on FanDuel, while DraftKings has Scheffler at +700 and Rahm at +750. BetMGM lists Scheffler at +750 and Rahm at +800.
“Both Rahm and Scheffler have a great chance, but I don’t believe it’s worth betting either of them at this event at current prices,” Matt Vincenzi, a golf writer for multiple publications, including The Action Network, told Sports Handle. “Winning is hard. Winning majors is even harder. For Rahm to go back-to-back in consecutive majors would be incredibly difficult. He’s capable, but my money will go elsewhere. Scheffler has been struggling with the putter lately. He has a great chance too, but I don’t see any value in the +750.”
The Scheffler-Rahm battle at the top doesn’t totally overshadow other key players and storylines, as Jordan Spieth (+4000 at SuperBook Sports) aims to secure a career Grand Slam while dealing with a wrist injury. Collin Morikawa (+3400 at FanDuel) and Jason Day (+2900 at FanDuel), who won last week’s PGA Tour event, are each gunning for the second PGA Championships of their careers.
Justin Thomas (+3000 at DraftKings), the defending champion, isn’t in elite form this season, but his odds are still plenty attractive. Others, like Xander Schauffele (+1700 at FanDuel), Patrick Cantlay (+2000), Tony Finau (+2100), Sungjae Im (+3600), Max Homa (+3600), and Rickie Fowler (+5500), are seeking the first major championship of their impressive careers. Cameron Young (+3200) enters the event slightly under the radar despite finishing in the top 10 at three of the last four majors.
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Brooks Koepka finished tied for second place behind Rahm, looking the part of a four-time major champion. Phil Mickelson fired a final round 65 to match Koepka’s score for the week, surprising many experts. And Patrick Reed finished in a tie for fourth place, giving LIV Golf three players in the top five at the prestigious event.
Vincenzi plans to wager on both Dustin Johnson (+3000 at DraftKings) and Brooks Koepka (+2000) to win the PGA Championship.
“Both have been incredible in the Northeast throughout their careers,” Vincenzi said. “Brooks won the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, which is a long and grueling par-70 track similar to what he’ll see at Oak Hill in Rochester this week. Then he won the PGA Championship at Bethpage Black. Bethpage is yet another beast of a Par 70 in New York. D.J. is a similar story. In his past 36 rounds in the Northeast in either major championships or FedEx Cup playoff events, he ranks first in Strokes Gained: Total.”
There have been 24 men’s major championships contested since the beginning of 2017. Brooks Koepka has finished either 1st or 2nd in one-third of them.
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) May 15, 2023
Johnson enters the event off a victory at LIV Golf’s event in Tulsa last week. Koepka finished sixth in that tournament, while Cameron Smith (+3200 on FanDuel) recorded a second-place finish.
SuperBook Sports’ vice president of risk and golf oddsmaker, Jeff Sherman, told Sports Handle that the sportsbook is seeing notable action on Koepka, Johnson, Talor Gooch, a recent back-to-back LIV tournament winner who’s priced at +8000 at SuperBook Sports.
Bettors are placing some stock in LIV victories, Sherman says, but it’s still not being viewed as equivalent to PGA Tour success.
“If Gooch had won back-to-back PGA Tour events, he’d be 40/1, not 80/1,” Sherman said.
Rory’s game unpredictable
Rory McIlroy, one of the most prominent voices on the PGA Tour, is a wild card at the second major of the year. He entered The Masters in the same stratosphere as Scheffler and Rahm, only to miss the cut and skip a designated event the following week, citing a need to recharge mentally.
“I needed it at the time,” McIlroy said this week. “Whether it works this week or not remains to be seen.”
McIlroy also ducked questions about LIV Golf during his pre-tournament press conference, a conscious change of course from last year. In his most recent PGA Tour event, McIlroy finished in a tie for 47th, a pedestrian showing from the four-time major champion, and bettors aren’t eagerly wagering on the Northern Irishman this week.
“He’s just not getting the support that he had been getting prior to The Masters,” Sherman said of McIlroy.
Can McIlroy regain his form this week on the big stage? His odds to win hover around +1500 at most mobile sportsbooks, with DraftKings listing him at +1800.
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